Yes, it will always be the economy. Maybe this will wake up Democrats that kitchen table issues are what matters. It was super apparent to Trump voters in last cycle. Zaid, I’m a PNW guy and one of those long suffering Mariner fans 😔
"Democrats won both races they competed in for the Public Service Commission, the body that regulates public utilities in Georgia."
Come on now...
Isn't this just the normal thermostatic reaction in politics? The party out of power always does well in the midterms because their supporters are fired up, and Americans in general prefer divided government.
Possible but I don't think that's a guarantee. It tends to be that the people who get elected overplay their hand, insist they have a mandate for every random thing under the sun, and voters respond "I didn't sign up for this." A winning party that plays the game carefully doesn't have to lose.
I disagree, just because the fundamental disposition of the average American voter is distrust of government. From that standpoint, splitting up power between the two parties by divvying up the legislative and executive branches is just good practice.
What's more, even though the opposition party does well in the midterms, the overwhelming pattern is that the executive gets re-elected. Obama got shellacked in 2010 and won in 2012 anyway. Clinton lost Congress in a genuine red wave in 1994 and still went on to win in 1996. And of course, Trump lost in 2018 and still went on to win in 2024. Did the party in power scale back its ambitions between the first midterm and the President's re-election campaign each time? If that pattern holds up, do you want to take bets on Vance in 2028?
And finally, the animus towards Trump drove turnout last night for the Dems, and frankly, a lot of that is irrational. Millions of people would have turned out last night to register their displeasure with Trump's ballroom renovations, even if that was the only thing his administration was doing.
Spot on, and I would go further than calling the economy mediocre; I think it is melting down all around us, but wealthy Republicans and GOP donors cannot feel it yet. The stock market is hugely overvalued. We've been riding the high of a euphoric bull run since the 'Liberation Day' tariffs, all driven by MAG7 and the AI bubble. But you know it's bad when Warren Buffett is sitting on more cash than before the 08/09 crash. Unemployment among young people is rising. Bad labor market. Median price of a house hit a record high in the summer. And if the administration wants to do tariffs and industrial policy, it needs to be sustained for a long time. Their whipsaw approach has been a disaster. American soybean farmers need a bailout because of the Trump tariffs, and cattle ranchers are pissed because the admin wants to import Argentinian beef to artificially lower prices. Even Scott Bessent has said sectors of the economy are already in a recession, while repeating the infamous Janet Yellen/Biden talking point that it is all "transitory." Trump and Republicans have completely lost sight of what got them elected in the first place. And, maybe for Trump, it's because he has surrounded himself with too many myrmidons, neocons, and terminally online advisors. The average American doesn't care about ANTIFA; they want to afford a house (in an area where there are jobs and opportunities) and not go into bankruptcy over a medical bill. I honestly believe some of people in the Trump administration and GOP leadership are living in an alternate reality. Like they're watching one movie in a theater, while the rest of America is watching something else entirely, in a separate theater three blocks down the street.
So after cumulative inflation of plus 20% during Biden's 4 years the Republicans are getting blamed for the cost of living because inflation has been 3% rather than 2% for the last nine months?
Yes, it will always be the economy. Maybe this will wake up Democrats that kitchen table issues are what matters. It was super apparent to Trump voters in last cycle. Zaid, I’m a PNW guy and one of those long suffering Mariner fans 😔
"Democrats won both races they competed in for the Public Service Commission, the body that regulates public utilities in Georgia."
Come on now...
Isn't this just the normal thermostatic reaction in politics? The party out of power always does well in the midterms because their supporters are fired up, and Americans in general prefer divided government.
Possible but I don't think that's a guarantee. It tends to be that the people who get elected overplay their hand, insist they have a mandate for every random thing under the sun, and voters respond "I didn't sign up for this." A winning party that plays the game carefully doesn't have to lose.
I disagree, just because the fundamental disposition of the average American voter is distrust of government. From that standpoint, splitting up power between the two parties by divvying up the legislative and executive branches is just good practice.
What's more, even though the opposition party does well in the midterms, the overwhelming pattern is that the executive gets re-elected. Obama got shellacked in 2010 and won in 2012 anyway. Clinton lost Congress in a genuine red wave in 1994 and still went on to win in 1996. And of course, Trump lost in 2018 and still went on to win in 2024. Did the party in power scale back its ambitions between the first midterm and the President's re-election campaign each time? If that pattern holds up, do you want to take bets on Vance in 2028?
And finally, the animus towards Trump drove turnout last night for the Dems, and frankly, a lot of that is irrational. Millions of people would have turned out last night to register their displeasure with Trump's ballroom renovations, even if that was the only thing his administration was doing.
Spot on, and I would go further than calling the economy mediocre; I think it is melting down all around us, but wealthy Republicans and GOP donors cannot feel it yet. The stock market is hugely overvalued. We've been riding the high of a euphoric bull run since the 'Liberation Day' tariffs, all driven by MAG7 and the AI bubble. But you know it's bad when Warren Buffett is sitting on more cash than before the 08/09 crash. Unemployment among young people is rising. Bad labor market. Median price of a house hit a record high in the summer. And if the administration wants to do tariffs and industrial policy, it needs to be sustained for a long time. Their whipsaw approach has been a disaster. American soybean farmers need a bailout because of the Trump tariffs, and cattle ranchers are pissed because the admin wants to import Argentinian beef to artificially lower prices. Even Scott Bessent has said sectors of the economy are already in a recession, while repeating the infamous Janet Yellen/Biden talking point that it is all "transitory." Trump and Republicans have completely lost sight of what got them elected in the first place. And, maybe for Trump, it's because he has surrounded himself with too many myrmidons, neocons, and terminally online advisors. The average American doesn't care about ANTIFA; they want to afford a house (in an area where there are jobs and opportunities) and not go into bankruptcy over a medical bill. I honestly believe some of people in the Trump administration and GOP leadership are living in an alternate reality. Like they're watching one movie in a theater, while the rest of America is watching something else entirely, in a separate theater three blocks down the street.
So after cumulative inflation of plus 20% during Biden's 4 years the Republicans are getting blamed for the cost of living because inflation has been 3% rather than 2% for the last nine months?
It's just a shame that the answer is always 'price controls'
I’ve been wondering whether culture wars play less of a role in midterm elections. What do you think?
Simple but right on the money.