Why Donald Trump Probably Can’t Unseat Thomas Massie

Yes, Trump is popular among Republicans. But history shows us this is far from decisive.

Photo by Darren Halstead on Unsplash

President Donald Trump has vowed to unseat Kentucky Republican Congressman Thomas Massie. Trump was miffed that Massie voted against the latest government funding bill.

“Congressman Thomas Massie, of beautiful Kentucky, is an automatic ‘NO’ vote on just about everything, despite the fact that he has always voted for Continuing Resolutions in the past. HE SHOULD BE PRIMARIED, and I will lead the charge against him,” he wrote on his website Truth Social.

This missive has set off quite a bit of debate about whether Massie can actually endure a Trump onslaught. Trump is, after all, very popular with Republicans. In the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, just 10% of Republicans say they somewhat or strongly disapprove of Trump.

So does that mean Massie is in trouble? Could he be the next Liz Cheney — the ex-Wyoming Congresswoman drummed out of office by Trump?

Probably not.

It’s a mistake to think that Trump’s popularity among Republicans nationwide also means that they are all lining up to have him pick their local officials.

Take for instance, my state of Georgia.

Trump, who won Georgia two out of three times he ran for president, wanted to unseat our current Republican Governor Brian Kemp and our current Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger.

But after he recruited primary opponents against them, they went down in flames. That’s despite Trump easily winning his own GOP primary in Georgia and winning the state in the general election by a decent margin.

Heck, those with long enough memories might remember that Trump wanted to unseat Massie way back in 2020. Trump wanted Massie thrown out of the party then for voting against GOP priorities. Yet Massie won with 81% of the vote.

This won’t stop people from trying. The Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) announced that they will be supporting the bid to unseat Massie. Although the RJC has considerable resources behind it, what they don’t have is any organic roots in the district. Sure, they’re mad at Massie for voting against aid to Israel (he votes against aid to every foreign country). But GOP Members like Georgia’s Marjorie Taylor Greene cast similar votes and never have to worry about a primary challenge.

Many of these rural districts have their own isolationist streaks, and the what happens on Main Street is a lot more important to them than what happens in the Middle East. Despite the conventional wisdom that it was Trump who unseated Cheney, I would argue that she lost touch with her constituents long before Trump went after here — otherwise she would’ve easily trounced his opposition just as Massie or Kemp did.

Ultimately, the power of the president to corral their party is a lot more limited than people think. Even Franklin Roosevelt, one of America’s most popular presidents, was hemmed in by the power of provincialism. When he went on a crusade to drive conservative Democrats out of the party, it almost entirely backfired.

If Franklin Roosevelt couldn’t do it, Donald Trump probably couldn’t do it either.